When will the United States collapse? This question has become a fixed fact waiting to happen only. The collapse has started, but the question is: When? The demise of the United States as a global superpower may come much faster than anyone imagines. If Washington dreams in 2040 or 2050 of the end of the American century, a more realistic assessment of domestic and global trends indicates that in 2025 it may all be over.
Despite the aura of ultimate power that most empires create, a look at their history should remind us that they are fragile beings. The environment of their power is so delicate that when things really start to go wrong, empires regularly collapse at an unholy speed: just one year for Portugal, two years for the Soviet Union, eight years for France, 11 years for the Ottomans, 17 years for Great Britch, and in all likelihood 22 years for the United States, starting in the crucial year 2003.
It is likely that future historians will identify the Bush administration's reckless invasion of Iraq that year as the beginning of America's downfall. However, instead of the bloodshed that was the end of many past empires, with cities being burned and civilians slaughtered, this imperial collapse of the twenty-first century could come relatively quietly from the unseen attempts of economic collapse or electronic warfare.
Undoubtedly; When Washington's global domination finally ends, there will be a daily agonizing reminder of what the loss of power means for Americans in every walk of life. As six European countries discovered that imperial decline tends to have a depressing and noticeable effect on society, which leads to a generation of economic deprivation. As the economy decelerates, political problems rise, often leading to serious domestic unrest.
Available economic, educational, and military data indicate that when it comes to the global power of the United States, negative trends will rapidly accumulate by 2020 and are likely to reach a critical mass no later than 2030. The American century was declared victorious at the start of World War II, but it may. It will be fading and fading by 2025, its eighth decade, and it could be in history by 2030.
In 2008, the US National Intelligence Council recognized for the first time that Washington’s global power was already on a downward trajectory. In one of his future periodic reports, he warned of the "transfer of global wealth and economic power now underway almost from West to East" as a major factor in the downturn. Nevertheless, like many in Washington, council analysts predicted a very long and soft decline in US global control, and expressed their hope that the United States somehow "maintains unique military capabilities ... to demonstrate military power globally" for decades to come.
As a result of these expectations, the United States will find itself in second place after China (the second largest economy in the world already) in economic output around 2026, and behind India by 2050. Likewise, Chinese innovation is on a path towards global leadership in applied science and military technology at a time. Between 2020 and 2030, just as the current US show of brilliant scientists and engineers is retiring without sufficient replacement with a young, uneducated generation.
There are three main threats to the United States ’dominant position in the global economy: a loss of economic leverage thanks to a shrinking share of world trade, a decline in US technological innovation, and an end to the dollar’s privileged position as a global reserve currency.
In 2008, the United States had actually fallen to third place in world merchandise exports by only 11%, compared to 12% to China and 16% to the European Union.
US leadership in technological innovation is also declining. In 2008, the United States was still second only to Japan in patent applications worldwide with 232,000 patents, but China was closing fast at 195,000, thanks to a massive 400% increase since 2000.
The education system in the United States, the source of future scientists and innovators, is lagging behind its competitors. After topping the world for decades in the 25-34 age group with university degrees, the country slipped to 12th in 2010. The World Economic Forum also ranked the United States 52nd out of 139 countries in the quality of college mathematics and science education in 2010.
About half of science graduate students in the United States are now foreigners, and most of them will return to their home countries and will not stay here as before. In other words: by 2025, the United States will likely face a severe shortage of talented scientists.
These negative trends encourage an increasingly fierce criticism of the dollar’s role as the world's reserve currency. Since mid-2009, with the world's central banks keeping $ 4 trillion worth of US Treasury bonds, Russia has said that the time has come to end "the artificially preserved unipolar system."
After years of inflated deficits due to ongoing wars in distant lands, and as was long expected, the US dollar in 2020 lost its position as a reserve currency in the world. Suddenly, the cost of imports rose, and Washington was unable to pay the ballooning deficit by selling now-devalued Treasury bonds abroad, so it would finally have to cut its inflated military budget. Thus, under pressure at home and abroad, Washington is slowly withdrawing American forces from hundreds of overseas bases into a continental periphery. However, it is too late now!
One of the victims of America's waning economic power was its lockdown on global oil supplies. Because of the US economy, which consumes large amounts of gas in the transit corridor, China has become the number one energy consumer in the world, a position the United States has held for more than a century. Energy specialist Michael Claire argued that this change meant that China "will set the pace in shaping our global future."
By 2025, Russia will control nearly half of the world's natural gas supplies, potentially giving them tremendous leverage over energy-hungry Europe. As the US National Intelligence Council has warned, in just 15 years, Russia could "emerge as a major energy hub."
The United States is still so dependent on foreign oil that some negative developments in the global energy market in 2025 will lead to an oil shock. Angered by the depreciation of the dollar, OPEC ministers demanded, at the Riyadh meeting, future payments for energy in a "basket" of yen, yuan and euro, and this only increases the cost of American oil imports. Meanwhile, China is spending countless billions building a massive pipeline across Asia.
As countries around the world begin to reorganize their policies to realize the rising powers of Asia, the cost of maintaining 800 or more US foreign military bases will simply become unsustainable, ultimately leading to a gradual withdrawal of a still unwilling Washington. With both the United States and China in a race to weaponized space and cyberspace, tensions are bound to escalate between the two powers, making military conflict by 2025 possible.
With the decline of American power, the emergence of a new global superpower cannot be ruled out. However, China and Russia demonstrate different cultures, depriving them of the main tools of global domination. So there does not seem to be a single superpower on the horizon that will likely succeed the United States.
Those who follow the recent US transformations at all levels will notice: